Latest News from Scientific American
Scientific American
10 hours ago
- Climate
- Scientific American
Sahara Dust Clouds Are Heading to Florida and Beyond
Clouds of dust blown off the Saharan Desert into the southeastern U.S. could affect local weather and make sunrises and sunsets particularly vivid By Meghan Bartels edited by Clouds of dust drifting from the Sahara Desert over the Atlantic Ocean could make for unusual-looking sunrises and sunsets, as well as potentially drier weather, over Florida and parts of the southeastern U.S. in the coming days. What's Happening Between late spring and early fall, dust from the Saharan gets blown out over the Atlantic Ocean every three to five days. When conditions are right, air masses that are filled with this dust can make it across the thousands of miles required to reach North America. Meteorologists call this type of air mass the Saharan Air Layer, or SAL. On supporting science journalism If you're enjoying this article, consider supporting our award-winning journalism by subscribing. By purchasing a subscription you are helping to ensure the future of impactful stories about the discoveries and ideas shaping our world today. Currently, on Friday, a thin SAL is dispersing over Florida, says Ana Torres-Vazquez, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service's Miami office, who adds that this could interfere with some storms carried into the peninsula by a cold front on Saturday. Another layer of dust—this one thicker and denser—may then blow in next week, although that forecast is currently less certain, Torres-Vazquez notes. It's worth noting that the Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1. In general, the SAL tends to dry the atmosphere it drifts through—so some scientists think these dust clouds may actually impede hurricane development. For now, however, forecasters aren't expecting any tropical storms to develop in the Atlantic within the coming week. Sunrise, Sunset The effect that will be most noticeable to local residents as the dust lingers might be unusual sunrises and sunsets. 'When you have Saharan dust or any other kind of particulate, if the sun is coming in at an angle, like during sunrise or sunset,' Torres-Vazquez says, 'it can hit those particulates that are close to the ground just right and result in those different, kind of orangey-reddish colors.' Other parts of the country might also see enhanced sunrises and sunsets during the coming days from a different kind of particulate—wildfire smoke. Canada is experiencing yet another brutal year for wildfires, with nearly 700,000 hectares, or more than 2,500 square miles, burned to date. Right now fires are particularly bad in the provinces of Saskatchewan and Manitoba, in part because of high temperatures stuck over central Canada. Smoke from these blazes is expected to reach U.S. states, including Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois and Michigan, in the coming days. Depending on how close the dust and smoke get to Earth's surface, these kinds of particulate matter can be harmful to people's health, particularly for people who are very young or very old and those who have asthma or heart or lung disease. The Air Quality Index can help you gauge whether you should take any precautions.
Scientific American
11 hours ago
- Science
- Scientific American
What Causes Glaciers to Collapse like the Event That Buried a Swiss Village?
An unstable glacier in the Swiss Alps collapsed this week, sending a deluge of rock, ice and mud through the valley below and burying the village of Blatten almost entirely. Scientists had warned about the possibility of a dangerous event related to the glacier, and village residents had been evacuated days earlier—but the glacier's near-total breakup came as a surprise. One person is reported missing. Government officials initially estimated the debris deposit to be several dozen meters thick and approximately two kilometers long. Making matters worse, the collapse of the glacier, called the Birch Glacier, blocked the flow of the Lonza River, which runs through the valley. As a result, a newly created lake upstream from the debris field flooded an area that has now overflowed into the deposit zone, which could cause a debris flow downstream. As of Friday afternoon local time, officials have reported that the water flow is approaching the top of the scree cone, which is the accumulation of loose, rocky debris. Why did the glacier break apart? The glacier's collapse and the subsequent landslide—which was so intense that it corresponded to a magnitude 3.1 earthquake captured by the Swiss Seismological Service —likely arose from a series of rockfalls that occurred above the glacier over the past couple of weeks. The rocks, dislodged because of high-altitude snowmelt, exerted significant pressure on the relatively small glacier, according to officials. Experts are looking into longer-term factors that may have weakened the glacier's stability even before those rockfalls. Christophe Lambiel, a glaciologist who also specializes in high-mountain geology at the University of Lausanne in Switzerland, said on RTS Swiss Television that the rockfalls were linked to climate change. 'The increase in the falling rocks is due to the melting permafrost, which increases instability,' Lambiel said, as reported on NPR. On supporting science journalism If you're enjoying this article, consider supporting our award-winning journalism by subscribing. By purchasing a subscription you are helping to ensure the future of impactful stories about the discoveries and ideas shaping our world today. How would climate change lead to a glacier's collapse? New research published on Thursday in Science finds that, under current climate policies, more than three quarters of the world's glacial mass could disappear by the end of this century. In this scenario, almost all small and relatively low-elevation glaciers, like the one in Switzerland, would be wiped out. In a 2024 article for Scientific American, journalist Alec Luhn explained that 'the deterioration of ice and snow is triggering feedback loops that will heat the world even further. Permafrost, the frozen ground that holds twice as much carbon as is currently found in the atmosphere, is thawing and releasing these stores.' Thawing permafrost is not just dangerous because it creates instability, as in the case of Birch Glacier. As Luhn wrote, 'Research has revealed that the permafrost zone is now releasing more carbon than it absorbs, heating the planet further.' Who is at risk from disintegrating glaciers? It's clear that the weakening of Switzerland's Birch Glacier was at least partially caused by rockfall. There are other ways in which changes to glaciers are causing risk—and occasional devastation—to people, communities and infrastructure. As a 2023 E&E News article explained, 'At least 15 million people worldwide live in the flood paths of dangerous glacial lakes that can abruptly burst their banks and rush down mountainsides.' These so-called glacial lake outburst floods can be fatal and cause catastrophic damage. 'The deterioration of the planet's snow and ice regions,' wrote Luhn in his 2024 article, 'is costing the world billions of dollars in damages,' according to a 2024 State of the Cryosphere report What can be done to preserve glaciers—and protect communities? Giant plastic blankets, gravity snow guns and painted rocks are all potential strategies to slow ice melt in the world's mountain regions. The sound that glaciers make when water is coursing through their icy cracks can be used to predict glacial lake outburst floods—and thus to save lives. There's also a growing sense of reckoning with the fate of the world's glaciers. An essay about the Global Glacier Casualty List, which documents glaciers that have melted or are critically endangered, was also released on Thursday in Science. In it, Rice University anthropologists Cymene Howe and Dominic Boyer write, 'The world's first funeral for a glacier was held in Iceland in 2019 for a little glacier called 'Ok….' Since then, memorials for disappeared glaciers have increased across the world, illustrating the integral connection between loss in the natural world and human rituals of remembrance.'
Scientific American
12 hours ago
- Politics
- Scientific American
Lawmakers Form First Extreme Heat Caucus, Citing ‘Deadly Risk'
CLIMATEWIRE | An Arizona Democrat and a New York Republican are teaming up to form the Congressional Extreme Heat Caucus in an attempt to find bipartisan solutions for deadly temperatures. 'We hope this caucus can make sure the United States is better prepared for the inevitable increase in temperatures, not just in Arizona and the Southwest but all across the country,' Arizona Rep. Greg Stanton (D) said in an interview. He's creating the caucus with New York Rep. Mike Lawler, a moderate Republican who bucked his party last year by expressing support for the nation's first proposed regulation to protect workers from heat by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration. On supporting science journalism If you're enjoying this article, consider supporting our award-winning journalism by subscribing. By purchasing a subscription you are helping to ensure the future of impactful stories about the discoveries and ideas shaping our world today. 'Extreme heat kills more Americans each year than any other weather event — over 1,300 lives lost, including 570 in New York alone — and it's a growing threat to the Hudson Valley,' Lawler said in a statement. 'That's why I'm co-chairing the Heat Caucus to drive real solutions, raise awareness, and protect our communities from this deadly risk.' Stanton said he was excited to team up with Lawler, who understands that heat jeopardizes health even in northern climates. 'He is from New York and I'm proud he recognizes how heat is important for workers,' he said. The caucus will be open to House lawmakers who have bipartisan ideas for addressing extreme heat. Noting that many Republicans have slammed OSHA's proposed heat rule, Stanton said the caucus doesn't have to find consensus on every policy, but members should be willing to search for common ground. "It is important to have that conversation on what we can come together and agree on because that's how we get legislation passed in this town, even if we don't agree on how far to go," he said. Lawler and Stanton teamed up earlier this spring to protest workforce reductions at the Department of Health and Human Services that could degrade heat-related programs. In April, the pair wrote a letter to Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., protesting layoffs that purged the entire staff of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Division of Environmental Health Science and Practice as well as the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program, which helps families pay for heating and cooling. 'As we head into another summer — with projections suggesting 2025 will rank again among the warmest years on record, we cannot afford to limit our ability to counter the impacts of extreme heat,' they wrote in April with nine other lawmakers. Among the caucus' priorities is making LIHEAP funding more evenly distributed to southern states to help pay for cooling assistance. The program was initially created to help low-income families pay their heating bills during winter, and the majority of its funding still goes toward cold-weather states. 'We have had too many deaths of people in their homes because they are unable to access programs that would help them access air conditioning,' Stanton said.
Scientific American
14 hours ago
- Science
- Scientific American
SpaceX's Starbase Is Officially a City. Some Neighbors Aren't Thrilled
Before SpaceX's Starship lost control and exploded over the Indian Ocean during its ninth test flight, the 400-foot-tall megarocket blasted off from Texas's newest city. Starbase, situated on 1.5 square miles of the Lone Star State's southernmost tip in the Rio Grande Valley, is mostly made up of SpaceX employees living on company-owned property and abuts a habitat for endangered wildlife, as well as a public beach. Starbase serves as the main testing and launch location for Starship, SpaceX's planned fully reusable spacecraft, which is meant to revolutionize human and uncrewed space travel with its gargantuan payload capacity and rapid-fire flight cadence. If Starship's development proceeds as planned, the megarocket could soon be ferrying crew and cargo alike to multiple otherworldly destinations—such as the lunar surface, for NASA's Artemis program, and Mars, in fulfillment of SpaceX founder Elon Musk's long-stated dream. But nearby residents worry about less glamorous local effects, fearing that a town built around the space company could continue SpaceX's alleged pattern of polluting the area and blocking access to the nearby beach and other open public spaces. On supporting science journalism If you're enjoying this article, consider supporting our award-winning journalism by subscribing. By purchasing a subscription you are helping to ensure the future of impactful stories about the discoveries and ideas shaping our world today. 'SpaceX has already proven itself to be an extremely bad neighbor,' says Christopher Basaldú, an anthropologist and environmentalist and co-founder of the South Texas Environmental Justice Network, who lives in nearby Brownsville, Tex. SpaceX did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Long before it was Starbase, the area's beaches, tidal flats and wetlands were of great significance to the Indigenous Carrizo/Comecrudo people (or Esto'k Gna in their own language). Many of them still live nearby as members of the modern-day Carrizo/Comecrudo Tribe of Texas. Today the area is largely Latino and among the poorest in the country. Musk's space company began buying up property there in 2012; ever since company housing and rocket-related infrastructure have steadily sprouted. 'We've grown quite a bit just in the last couple of years. It's a couple hundred employees [and] their families, living amongst actual rockets,' said Daniel Huot, a SpaceX communications manager, during a company livestream before Tuesday's Starship test flight. Huot added that the move to incorporate what was formerly Boca Chica Village as Starbase will help the company 'scale more quickly [to] try to build out the best community possible for all the people that are building the future of humanity's place in space.' Even before SpaceX began launching rockets at the site, neighbors complained about potential environmental woes stemming from the company's operations. In a 2018 press conference, Musk dismissed such concerns, saying 'We've got a lot of land with no one around, and so if [a rocket] blows up, it's cool.' The first launch of the 40-story-tall Starship vehicle in April 2023 didn't entirely proceed as planned —it blew up the concrete launch pad and left a literal crater behind. Particulate debris, as well as concrete and steel shrapnel from the botched launch, scattered far and wide across the surrounding landscape, igniting fires and slamming into protected habitats and public beaches. Ash, dust and sand grains hurled aloft by this first Starship flight test rained down as far out as Port Isabel, Tex., about five miles from the launch site. Local environmentalists have also sounded the alarm on how the company's activities at Starbase could increase chemical and sonic pollution that puts migratory birds and other vulnerable endangered species in the area at greater risk. Despite these brewing tensions, Starbase was incorporated in early May, making it the first new city in Cameron County, Texas, in 30 years. Only people who live in the immediate area—almost all of them SpaceX employees—were eligible to vote for the new city. Residents voted 212 for and six against. The city's mayor and commissioners—all current or former SpaceX employees—ran unopposed. 'Now [SpaceX has] stolen away not only a neighborhood but the land around it, which had been basically environmentally untouched areas,' says Basaldú, who is a member of the Carrizo/Comecrudo Tribe. Starbase's boundaries snake along State Highway 4, which provides the only access to both Starbase and the open-to-the-public Boca Chica Beach. A bill pending in the Texas Legislature would shift control over weekday closures of the beach and nearby roadways from the county commissioners to Starbase city leaders now that Starbase is a municipality under law. 'As a community, we were there first,' says Suquiery Santillana, a resident of nearby Brownsville, Tex., who has visited Boca Chica Beach since childhood. 'I'm almost 50, and now my grandkids are going.' Her family's trips to the isolated shoreline now include wide-eyed roadside spectators from all across the country who want to catch a glimpse of the SpaceX launch site. While Santillana is happy that SpaceX has brought jobs to the area, she would like the company to communicate more about upcoming closures and launch plans with locals. Members of the Carrizo/Comecrudo Tribe also trace their creation story to this once-pristine beach. The intermittent access restrictions imposed by SpaceX's launches, some tribe members say, limit them from freely participating in traditions such as fishing and tribal ceremonies that have been taking place on their ancestral land for thousands of years. Activity at the site could soon ramp up even more. On May 22 the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) announced it had granted approval for SpaceX to increase the annual number of Starbase launches from five to 25. Eventually, Starship flights from the site could far exceed that because the vehicle is designed for very fast turnaround times and an unprecedentedly high launch cadence. Starship's sheer size, coupled with more frequent launches, could balloon Starbase's overall environmental footprint while also essentially shutting down Highway 4 for much of the year. The FAA did not immediately respond to a request for comment. For now, Starbase is poised to continue its rapid development and expansion, with plans in the works for more housing, offices and rocket launch facilities. Jim Chapman of the local environmental justice nonprofit Save RGV (Rio Grande Valley) worries that Starbase's incorporation could allow SpaceX to skirt important regulatory hurdles. '[SpaceX has] fewer layers of bureaucracy that [it has] to go through and get approval from,' he says. 'But on the other hand, I haven't really seen the county denying [it] anything.' As SpaceX vies to fly ever more powerful rockets in pursuit of Musk's interplanetary aspirations, local residents also fear that the company's launch activity and its proximity to new natural gas projects could pose grave threats to Rio Grande Valley communities. One such project currently under construction is less than six miles from the launch site—too close for comfort, some critics say, given the possibility of volatile explosions sparked by showers of fiery rocket debris. If Musk's latest projections are to be trusted (he often overpromises and underdelivers on meeting ambitious rocketry deadlines), additional Starship test flights will blast off from Starbase every few weeks for the rest of the summer. Time will tell if the company will be mindful of those who live next door.
Scientific American
15 hours ago
- Climate
- Scientific American
Why This Hurricane Season Has Experts on Edge
June 1 marks the official start of the hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean—and once again, the season looks like it will be busy. Though it is impossible to tell this far in advance exactly when storms will form and where they might hit, the presence of hurricane-friendly environmental conditions this season—along with the federal government cuts and policy chaos —have experts worried about the accuracy of forecasts and the resulting safety of communities. Scientific American asked several forecasters and hurricane researchers what they were most concerned about this year. Warm oceans may mean a busy hurricane season On supporting science journalism If you're enjoying this article, consider supporting our award-winning journalism by subscribing. By purchasing a subscription you are helping to ensure the future of impactful stories about the discoveries and ideas shaping our world today. Seasonal forecasts—including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's— put the odds in favor of having more storms than average this season, which will last until November 30. NOAA predicts 13 to 19 named storms, meaning those of tropical storm strength (with winds of 39 to 74 miles per hour) or higher. Of those, six to 10 are expected to become hurricanes (with winds of more than 74 mph). And among those hurricanes, three to five are expected to reach major hurricane status—meaning they will have winds that will fall within Category 3 (those of 111 to 129 mph) or a stronger category on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The expectations of an active season arise from a combination of a favorable atmospheric environment and abundant ocean heat to fuel storms. For one thing, there's no El Niño in place right now to influence winds in a way that tends to shred storms apart, says Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University, whose team releases its own seasonal forecast each year. And waters in the Gulf of Mexico are extremely warm right now, providing ample fuel for the convection that drives tropical cyclones. 'Over 60 percent of the Gulf is at record or near-record warmth for the time of year, and waters east of Florida and around the Bahamas are as warm as we've seen them for the start of any hurricane season in the satellite era,' says Michael Lowry, a hurricane specialist at WPLG Local 10 News in Miami. Warm ocean water in these areas can cause storms to rapidly intensify right before landfall, giving communities less time to prepare for the onslaught. This is a major concern for Jill Trepanier, a hurricane researcher at Louisiana State University. 'That is just a devastating situation when it occurs,' she says. It's a situation that has played out many times in recent years, including with Hurricanes Beryl and Milton last season. 'The sticky heat of the Gulf is a worrisome trend that's undoubtedly fueling the spate of big hurricane hits along the Gulf Coast over the past decade or so,' Lowry says. 'This is consistent with recent research that suggests the Gulf has seen a significant increase over the past 42 years in the number of days where it can support high-end hurricanes.' Because of that abundant hurricane fuel, 'I would not be surprised if we see early-season activity well ahead of the peak' of activity in September, says Marshall Shepherd, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Georgia. Several experts noted that this year's conditions have some slight differences from the most recent seasons. For one, 'the waters of the deep tropical Atlantic east of the Caribbean—often a bellwether for overall hurricane season activity—are the coolest we've seen them to start a hurricane season since 2021,' Lowry says. But, he adds, they are 'still plenty warm ... and forecast to remain so, which should favor above-average activity.' Though the overall message is that this will be a busier-than-normal season, it is not predicted to be quite as busy as those of the past few years. Klotzbach is worried that could lead to complacency. 'My biggest concern is that, because the seasonal forecasts are a bit less aggressive than last year..., people may tend to let their guard down,' he says. Communities are still recovering Inevitably, each time a new hurricane season begins, some communities are still reeling from storms from the previous year—and often even further back in time. This year 'places in Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas are still recovering from Helene, Milton and Debby,' Shepherd says, citing three of the worst storms of the 2024 season. A National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine report released last year warned that the Gulf Coast in particular risked being in 'perpetual disaster recovery' mode. The report noted that seven hurricanes struck the region in 2020 and 2021 alone. It's entirely possible that some of the communities pummeled in recent years could face hurricane peril again this year. 'With projections of average to above-average activity, all it takes is one storm to compound an already bad situation for many people,' Marshall says. NWS and FEMA cuts Piled atop these concerns is the situation within the federal government, with substantial budget and staffing cuts to the National Weather Service (NWS) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). 'It remains to be seen what the impacts of reduced staffing across relevant NOAA offices and agencies will be,' says Brian McNoldy, a tropical storm researcher at the University of Miami. 'But any loss of expertise, data collection capabilities and around-the-clock monitoring is troubling during critical, high-impact situations.' Though the National Hurricane Center (NHC) monitors the development of tropical storms and hurricanes and produces the main forecasts, local NWS offices still play a crucial role in providing more localized warnings about storm surge, flooding and winds. Many offices in hurricane-prone areas are understaffed, says Jeff Masters, a writer at Yale Climate Connections and a former Hurricane Hunter at NOAA. Among those, the NWS's Houston and Miami offices are suffering the largest staff shortages. The NWS has asked staff from other offices to move into some of these open slots. Lowry and Masters also point out that the cuts have reduced the number of weather balloons launches. Balloon data are crucial for understanding the larger atmospheric patterns that determine where a hurricane will go—and who might need to evacuate or take other precautions. There is one positive note: 'I was very pleased to see the Hurricane Hunters reinstated,' Trepanier says, referring to three of the meteorologists who fly specialized, equipment-laden planes directly into storms to gather data that significantly improve forecasts. 'Though it isn't enough to offset the concern, it is a move in a good direction.' James Franklin, former chief of the NHC's Hurricane Specialist Unit, says he is concerned about trainings for emergency managers that were canceled earlier this year Their absence could leave areas less prepared and less able to know what decisions to make based on forecasts. 'When training has to be cut down…, it just makes those kinds of mistakes on the emergency management side more likely to occur,' he says. Finally, another big worry is simply the government's ability to respond with help for victims when a storm hits. Masters' biggest worry is that FEMA won't 'be capable of managing a major disaster right now.' Reports by CNN and other news outlets have cited internal FEMA memos that report the loss of 30 percent of full-time staff. 'I wrote the plan FEMA uses to respond to hurricanes,' says Lowry, a former employee of both the NHC and FEMA, 'and it's hard to imagine the agency will be able to meet its mission-critical functions this season with such depleted staffing and without a fully revised plan.'
